EU countries are all in favor of Ukraine in its war against Russia, but it is everywhere on the map when it comes to Ukraine’s request to be recognized as a candidate for EU membership. The European Commission is expected to propose official candidate status for Ukraine and neighboring Moldova on Friday, but the final decision requires unanimity among the 27 EU Heads of State and Government to convene for the next European Council summit in Brussels next year. week, but still do not agree on what to do. Rejecting Ukraine’s request – or even a nod to the future “membership prospect” – would be a devastating blow to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, potentially discouraging many of his more than 40 million citizens, and especially his military. , who continues to suffer serious losses. fights the Russian invaders who now occupy large areas south and east of the country. Such a rejection would also further fuel Russian President Vladimir Putin’s fantasies of regaining a sphere of influence resembling that of the Soviet Union and its superpower regime during the Cold War. Proponents of her case have been working to make the actual transcript of this statement available online. However, officials in some EU governments – particularly Denmark and Portugal – have expressed a strong reluctance to grant candidate status, arguing that if Ukraine were not at war, it would not be able to qualify for early accession. Moldova, they suggest, would be even further behind in the necessary preparations. Other EU governments have voiced support for candidate status, but are pushing for conditions that make it clear that genuine accession talks could not begin until Ukraine is complete and peaceful again, and that Kyiv has takes greater steps to fight corruption by strengthening the rule of law and reviewing democratic institutions. Most Eastern EU countries, especially Poland and the Baltic, are strongly in favor of granting candidate status to Ukraine, and officials in some of these countries have even expressed their willingness to speed up the accession process. “There is no alternative to the clear and strong political message of the EUCO to grant Ukraine candidate status,” said Andrzej Sadoś, Poland’s ambassador to the EU. week at EUCO “. Regarding the possibility of the European Council imposing strict conditions that Ukraine would have to meet in order for the accession talks to begin, Sadoś said: “On the necessary reforms and modernization, let ‘s wait for the Commission’ s opinion on Friday. “It’s obvious and it’s about accession negotiations, but in order to reform effectively we must first stop the war.” As a sign of the strong and continuing disagreement between the member states, a revised draft of the conclusions for next week’s European Council summit, prepared on Wednesday morning, included a section entitled: “REQUESTS FOR MEMBERS MOLDOVA AND AGRICULTURE “, but there was no accompanying text at all. Some diplomats, noting the strong views in Warsaw, Vilnius, Tallinn and Riga, have warned of a dangerous rift between Eastern and Western Europe over the issue. But in reality, the differences between the Member States are not so clearly defined.

It closes the big states

At a very realistic level, Ukraine’s chances of running for office would be nil without the support of France and Germany. French President Emmanuel Macron has a particularly crucial role to play, as his country currently holds the rotating presidency of the EU Council, and is therefore responsible for mediating any discussions between EU countries.
During a visit to Moldova on Wednesday, Macron appeared to be throwing his weight into Moldova and Ukraine’s integration efforts – while pouring cold water on Georgia’s prospects. But he also raised the sensitive issue of long delays in accession talks with Western Balkan countries such as Albania and northern Macedonia. These delays have been reported by some officials who are skeptical of granting candidate status, saying it would be wrong to give Ukrainians false hopes of joining soon. Macron, in a press conference with Moldovan President Maya Santou, said he expects the European Council to send a clear message next week. “I do not think there will be an interim regime, nor an interim response,” Macron said. “I do not want to anticipate the decision, because my role is to build a consensus. But I want to send a positive clear message on this. “But we have to take into account other Member States and countries that are already in the process of applying in the Western Balkans.” Macron’s comments were inherently contradictory, and not just because they both acknowledged their commitment as the Council’s “honest broker”, while at the same time expressing a firm position. Taking into account the views of the most skeptical Member States, a less than clear message may need to be given to Ukraine and Moldova. French President Emanuel Macron and Moldovan President Maia Sandu Yoan Valat / AFP via Getty Images As for Georgia’s candidacy, Macron suggested it was not a start at the moment. “I want to send a clear and positive message, but we need to build unanimity among the members,” Macron said, reiterating his position. “I do not think we can separate Moldova from Ukraine in the perspective we have.” But he added: “Georgia does not have the same geopolitical position.” German Chancellor Olaf Solz also appeared to be cautious in backing Ukraine’s candidate regime, but with a little less enthusiasm and with his Social Democrats coming under severe pressure from their allies in the ruling coalition and the pro-government coalition. However, it was not yet clear whether Scholz would wholeheartedly support the candidate status or support a “potential” conditional candidacy – a solution described in Berlin as promising Ukraine a “membership prospect”. Such pious language will only anger Kyiv, but other EU officials have warned that Zelensky would be wise to reduce some of his recent criticism of Germany, France and Italy – especially if Solz, Macron and the Italian prime minister Mario Draghi make a mutual agreement. visit to Kyiv as expected this week. In the case of Germany, the Ukrainian president complained of slow and inconsistent support, including arms deliveries, while France and Italy were reprimanded for expressing their willingness to compromise with Putin. Macron’s repeated comments that Russia should not be “humiliated” have been met with particular ridicule in Ukraine. Zelensky also angered EU leaders with his continuing praise for UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson, who is seen with contempt in Brussels and other EU capitals as unreliable and controversial for backing down aspects of the Brexit deal in particular. in the Northern Ireland Protocol that Johnson himself negotiated with the EU. For Ukraine and its supporters, many leaders in Western Europe seem dangerously disconnected from reality, including Macron, who proposed the creation of a “European political community” as a kind of alternative structure for countries to strengthen ties with the EU. Macron had said that the community would be open to countries such as Ukraine that want to join the EU, as well as to countries that had left the bloc – a clear reference to Britain. The fact that the EU and the United Kingdom once again found themselves in a fierce conflict over the Northern Ireland Protocol on Wednesday only offered further ammunition to Macron critics. On Wednesday, another EU diplomat reiterated Macron’s proposal and made the crazy suggestion that Russia could one day join such a European community.
This diplomat said that “the European political community would not be an alternative to enlargement”, but “a kind of coordination for those countries that do not want to join the EU or have left it, where we do not have a forum at the moment”. This diplomat said that the United Kingdom, Switzerland, Norway, Armenia and Azerbaijan could be potential members “and one day Russia – if and if it meets conditions such as not attacking another country and is democratic” . If this sounds crazy, officials in Berlin have suggested that it would be just as crazy to expect the EU to simply allow Ukraine to go beyond its usual membership requirements and gain quick entry as an EU member. Earlier this week, Soltz stressed during a press conference with Slovak Prime Minister Eduard Heger in Berlin that any possible EU enlargement should be “closely linked to the issue of further EU development”, meaning the bloc’s ability to reform. and to be reformed. makes decisions in areas such as foreign policy without each individual member state being able to veto it. The relatively large population of Ukraine, compared to many EU member states, would mean gaining a large delegation in the European Parliament and substantial power in decisions based on qualified majority voting, in which population size is a factor. Ukraine’s financial weakness would also make it receive a relatively large portion of the EU budget.

German concerns

Scholz is facing pressure not only from Eastern EU countries but also internally, including Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock of the Greens and ministers of the Liberal Democratic Party (FDP), who are pushing hard for Ukraine to have closer ties with the bloc. FDP’s European Policy Representative Michael Link warned that the failure to …