The big picture: President Volodymyr Zelensky said on June 1 that 60 to 100 Ukrainian soldiers are being killed every day as Russia intensifies its offensive in Donbas. That number has risen sharply in recent weeks, according to David Arachamia, who is leading Ukraine’s negotiations with Russia and is one of Zelensky’s closest advisers.
Ukraine has recruited one million people into the army and has the capacity to recruit another two million, Arakhamia said, so it has the numbers to continue the fight in Donbas, where Russia is gradually gaining ground. Co-chairman General Mark Milley was asked about the rate of Ukrainian casualties on Wednesday and said it was difficult to estimate, but previous media reports of about 100 dead and up to 300 wounded each day were “in the crosshairs of our assessments”. . He did not respond to Ukraine’s latest assessment. Milley also said that Russia had “huge” losses and that Ukraine was fighting effectively.
What Ukraine is missing, Arakhamia said, are weapons and ammunition that match Russia in “one of the greatest battles of the 21st century.” He said: “We have people trained to attack, to counterattack, but we need weapons for that.”
“Our negotiating position is actually quite weak, so we do not want to sit at the table if we are in that position. We have to reverse it somehow,” Arahamia said, stressing the need for a counterattack to regain lost ground.
News guidance: Arakhamia leads a Ukrainian delegation in Washington this week to pressure the Biden administration and Congress to increase arms shipments and recognize Russia as a state sponsor of terrorism – an issue he said was aimed at with House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.).
President Biden spoke with Zelensky on Wednesday and briefed him on additional military and humanitarian assistance, the White House said. The $ 1 billion weapons to be sent to Ukraine include rockets and artillery shells. At a roundtable on Wednesday at the German Marshall Fund, Arakhamia and other members of the delegation noted that while Biden had signed a $ 40 billion package to help Ukraine in May, it was gradually translating into actual arms shipments. Meanwhile, Ukraine’s partners – especially in Europe – are beginning to focus on replenishing their own reserves instead of arming Ukraine, Arakhamia said. He noted that the German government is still reluctant to approve export licenses for Ukrainian weapons, perhaps due to Russia’s “internal fear”.
What to watch for: While formal negotiations have frozen, Arahamia said he and his team speak by phone with their Russian counterparts “once or twice a week” to check in, although “both sides understand it is clear that at the moment, there is no room for negotiation “.
He said there was an internal reaction to the idea of negotiating with Russia after the alleged war crimes in cities such as Bucha and Mariupol, but also noted that the war should end through a “compromise”.
More from the round table:
Arahamia said Russia was using neighboring Georgia to circumvent sanctions, with the “obviously pro-Russian” government complying, something Georgia denies. Arakhamia said “our military people” strongly oppose the idea of demining Ukraine’s Black Sea ports in exchange for Russia allowing grain exports, because there would be “no guarantee” that Russia would not use these corridors. to attack by sea. The Ukrainian negotiator said Russia was largely isolated from sanctions due to high oil prices, but would feel the full effects in three or four years. “The question is whether we (Ukraine) are still here in three or four years to enjoy the show.”
Go deeper: The view of a Ukrainian soldier from the front lines in Donbas Author’s Note: This story was updated with comments from Commonwealth President General Mark Milley at a press conference.
