The Republicans elected their first Democratic seat for the 2022 election cycle on Tuesday, with Mayra Flores winning special elections in the highly Hispanic, 34th Southern Texas Congressional District. And with Flores becoming the first woman to be born in Congress, Republicans hail her as proof of their dynamism with Hispanic voters – increasingly vital in the U.S. election – and in the 2022 general election. But how much does it really tell us? There was a time when such snap elections were considered harbingers of the coming electoral waves. And it was… sometimes. Some of the great examples:

In 2005 and 2006, Democrats unexpectedly competed for some conservative seats in California and Ohio, just before winning both the House and Senate. In 2008, a shocking trio of Democrats – two in the Far South and one in the seat of former Speaker Dennis Hastert (R-Ill.) – heralded that the Democrats would win the White House again. In 2010, it was a shock GOP victory in Hawaii, before the Republicans regained Parliament. In 2011, the current Governor of New York Kathy Hochul (D) won a special election in the highest state, before the re-election of President Barack Obama. In 2018, it was the victory of the Democratic Conor Lamp in conservative western Pennsylvania, before the Democrats take back the House.

Mixed, however, there were some less indicative results. Earlier in the 2010 round, Democrats had also chosen a seat. The Republicans won one in New York, from all sides, at the beginning of the 2012 cycle. And the Democrats actually took a seat in California in 2020 – just before losing the White House. Thus, a large pickup does not make an election cycle. But it can be a sign. There is no doubt that the result of South Texas is a significant victory for the GOP, given the peculiarities of this region. Democrats have controlled the Rio Grande Valley for more than a century. The Republicans also chose a district that is the second most Hispanic in the country (84 percent) and which was in favor of Joe Biden by four points. Republicans have been winning in the region for years, with most of former President Donald Trump’s biggest gains between the 2016 and 2020 elections coming in Hispanic counties in South Texas and South Florida. But that had not yet translated into the large-scale occupation of Spanish-speaking Democratic seats in Congress. As Arelis R. Hernández and Michael Scherer of The Washington Post wrote in February, Republicans continued to oust long-term Democratic rule in South Texas. This district defeated President Biden by just four points, but in 2012 and 2016, it turned blue by more than 20 points. Complicating matters a bit when it comes to what Tuesday’s race foretells is that the National Democrats did not really try very hard at it. The map of the Texas Congress is being revised, and in November, this district (1) will be more democratic and (2) will have MP Vicente Gonzalez (D) on the ballot. (The leading Democratic nominee in this race, Dan Sanchez, was only running for the remainder of his current term.) Therefore, he did not risk as much as he would in a regular general election. Essentially, the Democrats’ motives here would be to save a vote in the coming months, to avoid forcing Gonzalez to run against a colleague, and to avoid an embarrassing loss. Eventually, the National Democrats dropped a modest amount on the campaign ads over the past week, something Sanchez complained was too little, too late. And, indeed, he spent badly and exceeded his rhythm on the airwaves. Probably due in part to low stakes, turnout was also extremely low – with less than 29,000 votes counted so far. By comparison, more than 200,000 voted in the same race in 2020 and more than 140,000 voted in mid-2018. This is a huge drop – bigger than you usually see even in snap elections. In short: Flores’s victory is undoubtedly a good sign for Republicans, even if it can be oversold as a predictor of what lies ahead. But we already knew that the Republicans were in a very good position, because of how they are doing on the general ballot. If there is anything that this result can speak to, it confirms the poll which suggests that Republicans continue to win with Hispanic voters. Some polls have shown that Republicans are closing the gap between these demographics on the general ballot, but in general the sample size is very small, making it difficult to draw safe conclusions. The special election in 1 of the 435 constituencies is a very small sample size in its own way. But this is not the first time we have seen good evidence that Republicans have been winning with the Hispanics or in South Texas lately. And all the reservations involved, it’s an ominous development for a Democratic Party that is already looking forward to a grueling November.