For the week ending June 2, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) said there were “early signs of a possible increase in the percentage of people who tested positive for the coronavirus.” It was most noticeable in England and Northern Ireland, where the positivity rate is one in 70 people and one in 65 people respectively. And is driven by new Omicron variants – BA.4 and BA.5. A separate study from Imperial College released on Tuesday suggests that Omicron infection does not provide much immunological protection against re-infection. So, with infection rates rising and more chances of re-infection – should we worry? Why are cases rising again? As COVID tests are no longer free and widely available, experts now rely on people’s responses to the weekly ONS Infection Survey to see if cases increase or decrease. After months of sharp declines, ONS data show that positive rates are declining in late May in each of the four nations, although he says trends for Scotland and Wales are “uncertain”. But since then, there has been a rise, largely due to two new Omicron variants – the UK Health and Safety Agency (UKHSA) on May 20. Dr Stephen Griffin, a virologist at the University of Leeds, told Sky News: “Although overall levels of infection have dropped, if you look at the breakdown of the variant, BA.4 and BA.5 in particular are becoming more prevalent. “There are some interesting changes with these two because they have increased antibody-blocking properties.” The Imperial study, published this week, looked at 700 healthcare workers in London from March 2020 onwards. Although everyone had three doses of the vaccine, Omicron re-infection rates differed. This is because, they say, protecting people from new variants of COVID depends on the specific history of vaccination and infection – a concept called immunoblotting or “original antigenic sin”. Dr Peter English, a former Public Health Adviser in England on communicable disease control, says: “The reason is that if you become infected with a previous variant and produce an immune response to it, when you become infected with a new variant, your body actually produces the original immune response, which is wrong, because it does not realize it is a new variant, which a different immune response is needed. “We are beginning to see signs that this is happening with these new Omicron variants. “So we may have had unjustified hopes that it would not be.” Dr Griffin adds: “The reason these variants are still spreading is because the group of people who can become infected is growing – because people who are already infected can become infected again.” Can we call it a “new wave”? The UK’s first Omicron wave came in December, shortly after the South African wave, followed by a second wave driven by the BA.2 sub-variant around March. BA.2 is still the most common infection in the UK, and while BA.3 remained largely in South Africa, the emergence of BA.4 and BA.5 in May is essentially another wave, says Dr Griffin . But he adds: “It is difficult to predict how big this wave could be.” South Africa already has a BA.4 / 5 wave, with cases already flattened. But it was completely different from what was experienced in Portugal – where mortality rates were much higher. “This speaks to the idea that as time goes on it will become increasingly difficult to predict how countries will fare with one variation,” he says. “This is because we have a different pattern of immunity – we are in a new era now where this is really important.” Therefore, comparing how BA.4 and BA.5 have influenced other countries does not seem to be useful. Should we worry? While the majority of Britons have returned to normal life, the recurrence of the cases will have consequences, warns Dr. “Some people are still very worried, but there are many others who have decided that they can no longer deal with the fact that COVID is something, so they will pretend it does not exist. And that will mean more danger for all of us. “ The virus, which is still more prevalent, will force the clinically vulnerable to return home and could see more people with long COVIDs or more severe symptoms, he adds. Vaccination rates and immunity from vaccines have also weakened and with masks and isolation no longer mandatory, it is likely to spread faster than before. Both scientists predict that, as in previous years, cases will increase in winter with more indoor time. But Dr English adds: “We should not be complacent, rates are rising fast enough here – and in the US. “People will return from their summer vacations and schools will become broadcasters, as they did before. “But I think we should be a little worried – even now.” Read more: Beijing parts in lockdown due to Omicron spike Travelers to the US are no longer required to take tests “The prevalence of this virus matters,” says Dr. Griffin. “We are going to see the number of Omicron deaths surpass Delta – although it is less likely to cause serious illness. “At the moment there is no public health safety net that says ‘this will happen if we do not do this, so here’s what we can do to stop it.’ “And it is this safety net, not the lockdowns, but these sensible measures, that would allow all sections of society to live with this virus.”
