Warming is occurring in the North Barents Sea, an area where rapid temperature rise is suspected of causing extreme weather events in North America, Europe and Asia. The researchers said the warming in the area was a “timely warning” of what could happen in the rest of the Arctic. New data show that average annual temperatures in the region rise throughout the year to 2.7 C per decade, with particularly high increases in the autumn months to 4 C per decade. This makes the North Barents Sea and its islands the fastest warming place on Earth. Temperatures have been well above average in the Arctic in recent years, with experienced observers describing the situation as “crazy”, “strange” and “just shocking”. Some climate scientists have warned that unprecedented events could signal a faster and sharper climate collapse. It was already known that the climate crisis was driving warm across the Arctic three times faster than the global average, but new research shows that the situation is even more extreme in places. Meteorological station data reveal excellent warming in parts of the Arctic Sea ice is good at reflecting sunlight, but it melts. This allows the darker ocean below to absorb more energy. The loss of sea ice also means that it no longer limits the ability of warmer seawater to heat Arctic air. The more ice is lost, the more heat accumulates, forming a feedback loop. “We expected to see strong warming, but not on the scale we found,” said Ketil Isaksen, a senior researcher at the Norwegian Meteorological Institute and head of work. “We were all surprised. “As far as we know from all other observation points in the world, these are the highest heating rates we have observed so far.” “The broader message is that the melting of sea ice is even higher than previously thought,” he said. “This is an early warning of what will happen in the rest of the Arctic if this thaw continues and what is more likely to happen in the coming decades.” Scientists around the world said in April that immediate and deep cuts in carbon and other greenhouse gas emissions were needed to deal with the climate emergency. “This study shows that even the best possible models underestimated the rate of warming in the Barents Sea,” said Dr Ruth Mottram, a climatologist at the Danish Meteorological Institute who is not a member of the team. “It seems we are seeing it shift to a new regime, as it looks less like the Arctic and more like the North Atlantic. “It’s really on the edge right now and it seems unlikely that the sea ice will stay in this area for much longer.” The research, published in the journal Scientific Reports, is based on data from automated meteorological stations on the islands of Svalbard and Franz Josef Land. Until now, this had not gone through the standard quality control process and had not been made public. The result was a high-quality set of surface air temperature measurements from 1981 to 2020. The researchers concluded: “The regional warming rate for the North Barents Sea region is excellent and corresponds to 2 to 2.5 times the Arctic warming average and 5 to 7 times the global warming average. “ There was a very strong correlation over time between air temperature, sea ice loss and ocean temperature. Isaksen said the rapid rise in temperature would have a huge impact on ecosystems: “For example, here in Oslo, we have a temperature rise of 0.4 C per decade and people are really experiencing the snow conditions that disappear during the winter. “But what is happening in the far north is out of scale.” Isaksen said the new information on global warming rates will help other scientists investigate how changes in the Arctic are affecting extreme weather in densely populated areas at lower latitudes. There is evidence that rapid heating changes the jet winds that surround the pole and affect extreme weather conditions. “Sea ice loss and warming in the Barents Sea in particular have been isolated in previous work as particularly relevant to changes in winter air circulation associated with extreme winter weather,” said Michael Mann, a professor at the State University. . US. “If this mechanism is valid and there is some discussion about it, then this is another way in which climate change could increase certain types of extreme weather events. [and which] is not well captured by current models. “
