And if you’re like most of these Americans, you’ve had it quite recently – during the huge Omicron wave that swept across the US during the winter holidays. The question now is whether you are ready to become infected again – this time with a new subtype that not only bypasses part of your existing immunity but may also be more resistant to basic treatments. Two mutants that match this description, BA.4 and BA.5, are now taking off in the US – and experts say they will soon overtake previous versions of Omicron (BA.2 and BA.2.12.1) already cause hundreds of thousands of new (and mostly unreported) infections every day for weeks. A patient in the emergency department at Providence St. Medical Center. Mary in Apple Valley, California (Mario Tama / Getty Images) “The next chapter in the pandemic … is a story of immune escape,” Dr. Eric Topol, founder of the Scripps Translation Institute, recently predicted. And experts say the United States is not doing enough to keep up. Once upon a time, re-infection was rare. Some scientists even suspected that natural immunity from a previous COVID case would protect most people from becoming infected again. Vaccination also prevented more than 90% of infections. But Delta broke that wall of immunity and Omicron BA.1 broke it, pushing infection rates – including pioneering infections – to high levels. Then BA.4 and BA.5 evolved to avoid the huge amount of immunity triggered by the original Omicron – and in the last month, their share of cases in the US has almost doubled every seven days, signaling exponential growth. At the same time, re-infection rates in the US seem to be rising. By July, BA.4 and BA.5 are likely to be nationally dominant. The consequences of the faster-than-expected evolution of the Omicron – from a new variant that avoids previous immunity to a rapid succession of sub-variants that avoid the immunity acquired even from previous versions of Omicron – are just becoming clear. The story goes on A medical professional prepares a COVID PCR test at the East Boston Neighborhood Health Center in Massachusetts. (Joseph Prezioso / AFP via Getty Images) The good news is that overall, COVID is less deadly now than ever before. Despite the increased incidence rates, there are now fewer COVID patients in the US in intensive care units than at any previous point in the pandemic, and the national mortality rate (approximately 300 per day) is as low as ever. Acquired immunity, multiple rounds of vaccination and improved treatment options help – a lot. But there is also worrying news. Recent research suggests that beneficial mutations in the BA.4 and BA.5 spike proteins could reverse some of the progress we have made against serious diseases. Among these preliminary findings: Combined with declining vaccine protection and disappointing booster intake in the elderly, the virus’ new trajectory – toward greater transmissibility, escape and potentially pathogenicity – could affect vulnerable Americans in the coming months. A 12-year-old girl is getting her first COVID vaccine at the South Miami Pediatric Clinic. (Pedro Portal / Miami Herald / Tribune News Service via Getty Images) Portugal, for example, is currently experiencing a major BA wave and COVID deaths are once again approaching winter highs in Omicron, although 87% of the Portuguese population has been fully vaccinated – 20 points higher than In the US, on the other hand, the official The number of COVID deaths in South Africa remained relatively stable during the recent rise of BA.4 in this country (although excessive deaths increased sharply). In South Africa, only 5% of the population is over 65 years old. in Portugal, this figure is 23%. The US – where seniors make up 16% of the population – is much more like Portugal demographically. Even small failures in protecting the immunocompromised and the elderly can have a real impact. The same is true of a “new normal” involving regular re-infection – which seems to be where the US is heading. Death is not the only disadvantage of COVID. First, the coronavirus for a long time is real – and the more often the virus infects you, the more likely it is to cause prolonged symptoms. Then there are all the common disadvantages of getting sick: lack of schooling, job loss, lost wages, childcare juggling, canceling events, and spreading the virus to other, more vulnerable people. Each of these problems becomes much more problematic when it happens again and again on a massive scale – as opposed to the more moderate and manageable scale, for example, of the flu, which is much less contagious than COVID and tends to re-infect us every now and then. years. Americans already recognize how annoying and potentially dangerous regular infections would be. According to the latest Yahoo News / YouGov poll, a significant majority (61%) say it would be a very (29%) or somewhat big problem (32%) “if, in the future, you get infected with coronavirus several times a year” – while only about a quarter (27%) say it would be a not too big problem (17%) or it would not be a problem at all (10%). A COVID-19 test site appears in Times Square, New York, USA, May 17, 2022. (Wang Ying / Xinhua via Getty Images) So far, few Americans – only 28% – believe they are likely to be re-infected so often, and experts say it is still possible to reduce the chances, which are now increasing rapidly, to better meet expectations. But they also say the US is far behind the curve. Last week, Moderna announced that the top contender for the fall boost is based in part on Omicron BA.1 (now extinct in the US) instead of BA.4 and BA.5 (representing 13% of cases and of climbing). As the New York Times put it, “the concern that the virus is evolving so fast that it goes beyond [our] ability to modify vaccines, at least if the United States relies on human clinical trials for results. ” A faster method – possibly based on data from laboratory tests and tests on mice or other animals – may be needed to ensure that the boosters remain effective. Next-generation vaccines may also be needed to minimize infections. As Dr. Deepta Bhattacharya, a professor of immunology at the University of Arizona, told the New York Times on Monday that “nasal or oral vaccines place memory cells and antibodies near the sites of infection and offer possible ways to prevent symptoms and possibly even infections.” in total. “Some of these vaccines are now in clinical trials and could be available soon.” Meanwhile, Bhattacharya continued, “Researchers are also studying individual vaccines that could work against all versions of the new coronavirus. These vaccines, which are designed to be resistant to the strains, make it difficult for the virus to cross the immune system. They have shown great promise in animal experiments. “Some are undergoing clinical trials and could be available in the coming years.” Mary Jane Navarro washes serum cells, which are separated from the blood of vaccinated mice, while working on vaccine and protein research at the University of Washington in Seattle. (David Ryder / Getty Images) Improving ventilation would also help. “If we are going to have waves every few months, we need to do something * sustainable * to reduce transmission,” COVID expert Christina Pagel recently wrote on Twitter, referring to the “once in a decade opportunity” that “Now we have to make continuous improvements in indoor air quality in public and private.” “It’s not just about masks – especially when they are not practiced in restaurants / pubs / gyms,” added Pagel, who is based in the United Kingdom. “We have solutions!” But the US is not funding an Operation Warp Speed for next-generation vaccines or air quality improvements. Republicans in Congress, on the other hand, are blocking a modest $ 10 billion in new COVID spending, forcing the White House to cut test money so the U.S. is ready to buy the minimum this fall, like existing pills and pills. This combination of obstruction and lack of ambition represents what Topol and others have described as “COVID complacency.” However, if the sudden rise of BA.4 and BA.5 tells us anything, it is that COVID is not complacent with us. New versions of the virus will never bring the US back to normal. But they will continue to make our way out of the pandemic more troublesome and even more dangerous than they should be – unless we do more to keep going.
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