Monarchies have long regarded Washington as their traditional security ally. But in their eyes, the US showed little appreciation for the threat facing its nations as increasingly sophisticated weapons targeted cities, airports and oil infrastructure. When US President Joe Biden ordered billions of dollars in arms to Ukraine to help it fight the Russian invasion, they saw it as further evidence that Washington did not treat its longtime Gulf partners with the respect they believed. While the Saudis and the Emirates were smart on security issues, the Biden government had its own frustrations. He was outraged by the resistance of Gulf leaders to pumping more oil to reduce high energy prices and their refusal to distance themselves from Vladimir Putin, with whom they have forged closer ties in recent years. Just as Russia’s aggression has given new impetus to the transatlantic alliance, it has exposed the destructive nature of its decades-long Gulf partnership with Washington and focused intense tensions on the foundation on which it was built: its security assurances. US oil-rich nations in exchange for a commitment to stable global energy markets. “The war in Ukraine was a blessing and a curse for the Gulf. “They see that America is coming back, not checking out and can mobilize whenever it wants,” said Sanam Vakil, a Gulf expert at Chatham House. “The bad news for them is that when the US mobilizes for someone else, it’s a slap in the face.” Instead of rupturing, however, the US and its Gulf allies decided to try to repair the fences. The White House announced Tuesday that Biden will visit Saudi Arabia next month, where he will meet with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, the daily leader of the world’s top oil exporter. Saudi Arabia’s successor Mohammed bin Salman meets with Russian President Vladimir Putin at a 2018 G20 summit in Buenos Aires It is a remarkable turn for a president who promised to treat the kingdom like a pariah and work with King Salman, not his son, MBS, as the heir is known. Biden will face domestic criticism for abandoning his principles as US intelligence agencies believe MBS approved an operation to “arrest or” kill Jamal Kasogi, a journalist killed by Saudi agents four years ago. in the interest of trying to isolate Russia. For many diplomats and observers, the visit to Saudi Arabia is a sign of the continuing attractiveness of the Energy Security Pact that has defined the US relationship with the Gulf. Washington needs help to mitigate the impact of the war in Ukraine on oil prices, while the Gulf states continue to rely heavily on US military assistance, from missile defense to fighter jets. “This is an opportunity for the United States to bring the table back. . . “To make the region more comfortable and self-aware of why their partners are concerned about the US commitment,” said one person who was briefed on the Gulf talks.
Compensating for energy stability
Saudi Arabia appeared to be paving the way for a possible meeting this month, eventually agreeing to a modest increase in crude production with its OPEC + producers. Biden described the move as “positive.” Some of the president’s aides have been pushing Biden for months to put aside his moral rage and push for rapprochement, arguing that it is worth accepting the compromises of working with MBS in exchange for energy stability. The White House had previously considered a meeting between Biden and the MBS at the G20 summit in Rome last October, but those pilot plans were lost when the prince chose not to attend, say people familiar with the matter. Encouraged by their leverage in energy markets, both Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are likely to want signs of tangible support, not just reassurances of US commitments. High on their agenda will be a push for more formal, institutionalized security cooperation with the United States, including improved intelligence and military cooperation to address the threat of missiles and drones. A facility used for the unloading and unloading of crude and refined oil at the North Pier terminal, operated by Saudi Aramco, in Ras Tanura, Saudi Arabia © Simon Dawson / Bloomberg When former US diplomat Dennis Ross, a Middle East veteran who pushed for a “balanced” relationship with Saudi Arabia, recently visited Riyadh, he spotted a sense of “injured pride.” The message from Riyadh, he says, was “do not take us for granted and think that you can just dictate to us and not humiliate us.” But Ross adds that there has also been a recognition of the long-standing strategic relationship between the countries. “I’m going to hear he’s not there yet, and ‘we still have questions and we’re still worried if this administration’s retiring?’” Ross says. The fears of some in the Gulf about the US disengagement worsened last year after the US withdrew part of its air defense from the kingdom for reasons of maintenance and exchange. Gen. Kenneth McKenzie, head of the U.S. Central Command, told a House committee in March that “we have worked closely with our Gulf allies to expand their defense capabilities,” adding that Saudi Arabia has more than 20 Patriot anti-missile batteries. But Riyadh saw the withdrawal of some air defense systems as an indication of what they saw as the politicization of the US-Saudi relationship, especially by the progressive Democrats. A U.S. Air Force soldier stands near a Patriot missile battery at Prince Sultan Air Base in al-Kharj, central Saudi Arabia © Andrew Caballero-Reynolds / AP “There is a sense on both the Saudi and Emirati sides that when they really felt threatened, they did not see a sense of urgency on our part to respond,” Ross said. “Whether it is a fair perception or not, it is in many ways irrelevant, because they believe it.” But he believes the crisis in Russia has sparked Washington’s recognition of the strategic importance of Saudi Arabia and the UAE – the only oil producers with the potential to significantly increase crude production – as Biden seeks to isolate Putin and stabilize markets. energy. “In a way, what you see from the Biden government is a kind of updating and modernization of what was the traditional formula: ‘We take care of your security, you take care to ensure that energy supplies are what they need.’ to be “, says Ross. As a sign of changing diplomatic sentiment, the United Arab Emirates and the United States have drawn up a new “security framework”, although nothing has been finalized, said the person who was briefed on the UAE talks. A senior US official says Washington is “in regular talks with the United Arab Emirates to strengthen our defense cooperation to prevent and respond to any future attacks.” In addition to seeking greater support for the stabilization of energy markets, Biden is also likely to seek a move from Saudi Arabia to Israel, which the president will also visit. Israeli officials said talks before Biden’s visit included Riyadh’s ability to extend Israeli overflights to Saudi Arabia. The kingdom has no official relations with Israel, but secretly cooperates with the Jewish state on security and intelligence issues. US intelligence says Mohammed bin Salman plotted to “arrest or kill” Jamal Kasogi, journalist killed by Saudi agents four years ago © Yasin Akgul / AFP / Getty Images However, it is unclear how much Biden will be willing to step up security ties with Saudi Arabia, given the potential backlash between some Democrats. Speaking of speculation that Biden will visit the kingdom, Adam Siff, a leading Democrat, said he would not go to Saudi Arabia or shake the MBS’s hand. “It’s someone who slaughtered an American resident [Khashoggi]”he cut it to pieces in the most horrific and premeditated way,” said Sif, who chairs the House Intelligence Committee, on American television this month.
Rocket technology
Washington is dealing with a much more dynamic, confident generation of Gulf leaders, who are protecting their relationship to be more independent of the United States. It is one of the factors that has pushed Riyadh and Abu Dhabi closer to Russia and China in recent years. another point of friction in their relations with Washington. Biden angered Gulf leaders in the early days of his term by ending Washington’s support for the Saudi-led coalition fighting Iranian-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen’s civil war. It has frozen “aggressive” arms sales to Saudi Arabia and lifted the Trump administration’s designation of terrorism against the Houthis. In Riyadh, officials saw a correlation between Biden’s decisions and an increase in Houthi attacks. The militants have been embroiled in a conflict with the kingdom since the Saudi-led coalition, which includes the United Arab Emirates, intervened in Yemen’s civil war in 2015 to support the ousted government. Riyadh and Abu Dhabi see the Houthis as Iran’s proxy, and they – and Washington – accuse Tehran of supplying the Islamists with sophisticated missile and drone technology. In the first months of this year, insurgents launched almost weekly attacks in the kingdom, including a rocket attack in March in Jeddah, the weekend that the city hosted a Formula One race. Abu Dhabi, beating the heart of power in the UAE. As the vulnerability of his state was revealed, Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed, the UAE leader, was furious that Biden had not called him to offer his support. THE…
