So what can we expect in the coming weeks and months? Although BA.2 continues to be responsible for most infections in the UK, data from the Office for National Statistics by 2 June suggest that Covid cases may start to rise again in England and Northern Ireland due to increase in BA.4 and BA.5 infections. Trends were uncertain in Wales and Scotland. Also gaining ground in the UK are BA.5.1 (BA.5 child) and sub-variant BA.2.12.1 (the dominant Covid strain), which is monitored by the UK Health Insurance Agency. BA.4 and BA.5 were formally designated VOC variants in the United Kingdom on May 20, having first been detected in South Africa in January and February this year. According to the latest ONS figures, about one in 70 people in England is estimated to have had Covid in the week before 2 June. In Northern Ireland it was about one in 65, in Wales about one in 75 and in Scotland about one in 40. In South Africa, BA.4 and BA.5 were responsible for a second wave of Omicron infections that began in early May and now appear to be normalizing. However, South Africa was not affected by the highly contagious BA.2 variant in the same way it was hit in the UK, and scientists hoped that high levels of immunity from recent BA.2 infection and booster vaccines might be enough to prevent these newer variants from gaining a prominent place here. However, with immunity from the third dose of the vaccine declining in most population groups and only people over the age of 75 and extremely vulnerable groups having received “booster spring” doses, this is not guaranteed. Even recent infection with variants BA.1 or BA.2 Omicron does not necessarily provide protection against re-infection with BA.4 or BA.5. According to research published in Science on Tuesday, natural infection with Omicron does not elicit a strong immune response, whether scientists test for antibodies or T-cells – meaning that people who have already recovered from an infection Omicron can be quickly re-infected. The findings, by Professor Danny Altmann at Imperial College London and colleagues, may help explain why infection rates have remained high in countries such as the United Kingdom, despite the fact that so many are already infected. According to preliminary data from Kei Sato at the University of Tokyo and colleagues, BA.4, BA.5 and BA.2.12.1 may have evolved to revitalize lung cell infection, rather than upper respiratory tract tissue. road – making them more similar to older variants such as Alpha or Delta. The tendency of previous variants of Omicron to prefer non-lung tissue infection may be one reason why infections tend to be milder in most people. “These things seem to be returning to the most dangerous form of infection, so they are falling down the lungs,” said Dr. Stephen Griffin, a virologist at the University of Leeds. Sato experiments show that BA.4, BA.5 and BA.2.12.1 reproduce more efficiently in human lung cells than BA.2, while further hamster experiments suggest that BA.4 and BA.5 may cause more serious illness. Subscribe to the First Edition, our free daily newsletter – every morning at 7 p.m. BST These variants also appear to have higher reproduction rates than BA.2, and further experiments by Sato’s laboratory show that BA.4 and BA.5 may be resistant to immunity induced by previous Omicron infections (similar to Altmann findings). “Overall, our research suggests that the risk [these] “Omicron variants, especially BA.4 and BA.5, for global health are potentially larger than the original BA.2,” Sato said. Also, the idea was spread that the virus is on the verge of simply turning into a common cold. “Clearly it is not, and there is no pressure to do so, really,” Griffin said. Even so, the rise of BA.4 / 5 and other minor variants in no way brings us back to the beginning. The population of the United Kingdom is, in general, highly vaccinated and previous infection with other variants will also count. However, those who have not been vaccinated remain vulnerable. Professor Tulio de Oliveira, director of the Center for Epidemiology and Innovation at Stellenbosch University in South Africa, said BA.4 / 5 was less deadly than any of the previous waves that hit his country. In part, this could be because the wings of Covid Hospitals were largely empty when it was launched, but it is also likely to be the result of high levels of population immunity. However, hospitalizations and deaths are only part of the picture. Long-term Covid cases continue to rise in the UK. According to the latest ONS figures, 2 million people in the UK are believed to be living with long Covid – the highest number since official surveys began. So what do you do about it? Data on the efficacy of amplifiers against these newer variants are still lacking, but if there is prior experience, they are likely to greatly restore immune protection – at least against hospitalization and death. From the autumn, a fourth installment is expected to be offered to people over 65, first-line health and social care workers, residents and care staff, and clinically vulnerable people. Fortunately, BA.4 and BA.5 will present only a small snippet on the UK’s transition from the Covid crisis. But their appearance is a reminder that smooth navigation is by no means guaranteed.
