With the conflict now in its fourth month, it is a high-stakes campaign that could dictate the course of the entire war. If Russia wins the battle of Donbas, it will mean that Ukraine is losing not only land, but perhaps most of its most capable military forces, paving the way for Moscow to seize more territory and impose its terms on Kyiv. A Russian failure could lay the groundwork for a Ukrainian counterattack – and possibly lead to political unrest in the Kremlin. After early failed attempts to invade Kiev and Kharkiv’s second largest city without proper planning and coordination, Russia turned its attention to Donbass, an area of mines and factories where Moscow-backed separatists are fighting Ukrainian forces since 2014. Learning from its past mistakes, Russia is moving more cautiously there, relying on longer-range bombings to weaken Ukrainian defense. It seems to be working: The best-equipped Russian forces have also made gains in the Luhansk and Donetsk regions of Donbass, controlling more than 95% of the former and about half of the latter. Ukraine is losing between 100 and 200 troops a day, presidential adviser Mykhailo Podolyak told the BBC, as Russia has “thrown almost everything non-nuclear at the front”. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy earlier reported the daily death toll at up to 100. Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov described the battle situation as “extremely difficult”, using a reference to an ancient deity of sacrifice as saying: “The Russian Moloch has many means to devour human lives to satisfy his imperial ego.” When the war went badly for Russia, many believed that President Vladimir Putin could claim victory after some gains in Donbass and then emerge from a conflict that has hit the economy hard and expanded its resources. But the Kremlin has made it clear that it expects Ukraine to recognize all the gains Russia has made since the invasion – something that Kyiv has ruled out. Russian forces control the entire shores of the Sea of Azov, including the strategic port of Mariupol, the entire Kherson region – a key gateway to the Crimea – and a large part of the Zaporizhzhia region that could help push further deeper into Ukraine. few expect Putin to stop. On Thursday, he drew parallels between the Ukrainian conflict and the wars of the 18th century with Sweden waged by Peter the Great. Now, as in those tsarist eras, “our fate is to take back and consolidate” historic Russian territory, Putin said. Moscow has long regarded Ukraine as part of its sphere of influence. In contrast to previous battlefield failures, Russia appears to be using more conservative tactics. Many expected it to try to encircle Ukrainian forces with a massive forceps move from the north and south, but instead used a series of smaller moves to force it to retreat and not extend its supply lines. Keir Giles, Russia’s expert at the Chatham House think tank in London, said Russia was “concentrating all its artillery on a single section of the front line to pave its way forward, leveling everything in its path.” ». Western officials continue to praise the ability of Ukrainian forces to defend their country, launching fierce and similarly artillery-based counterattacks and retreating in some sections while launching frequent counterattacks. “Ukraine has pursued a policy of flexible defense, giving ground where it makes sense to do so instead of holding every inch of territory,” Giles said. A senior Western official, speaking on condition of anonymity because he had no authority to discuss the sensitive issue in public, said the Russian campaign “continues to be deeply troubled at all levels”, noting that Moscow’s forces needed “weeks to succeed”. and modest tactical objectives, such as the occupation of villages. “ Last month, the Russians lost almost an entire battalion in a failed attempt to cross the Siverskyi Donets River and build a bridgehead. Hundreds were killed and dozens of armored vehicles destroyed. “There is a sense of strategic improvisation or confusion,” the official said, predicting that in the summer the Russian army could reach a point where it can no longer effectively produce offensive combat power. Russia has a clear artillery advantage in the battle for Donbas, thanks to a large number of heavy shells and rocket launchers and ammunition. The Ukrainians had to be economical in their use of artillery, with the Russians constantly targeting their supply lines. Ukraine has begun receiving more heavy weapons from Western allies, which have provided dozens of shells and are now planning to begin delivering multiple rocket launchers. Putin has warned that if the West gives Kyiv longer-range rockets that could hit Russian territory, Moscow could hit targets in Ukraine, which has so far escaped. Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov also said that Russia could respond by seizing more land as a safety belt from such weapons. Moscow’s previous territorial gains in the south, including the Kherson region and much of neighboring Zaporizhzhia, prompted Russian officials and their local appointees to consider plans to relocate these regions to Russia or declare them “independent,” as they call it. People’s Republics “of Donetsk and Luhansk. Ukrainian officials and Western analysts have expressed concern that Moscow could try to intensify its offensive in the densely populated and industrialized Dnipro region further north, a move that could potentially split Ukraine in two and create a new . “Russia’s goals in this war are changing in relation to the situation on the ground,” said Eleonora Tafuro Ambrosetti, an analyst at the Italian Institute for International Political Studies in Milan. “Their targets are flexible enough to be adaptable on the ground,” he said, noting that Russia could try to hurt Ukraine’s economy by occupying the entire coastline to deny access to shipping. A top Russian general has already spoken of plans to cut Ukraine off from the Black Sea by occupying the Mykolaiv and Odessa regions up to the border with Romania, a move that would also allow Moscow to build a land corridor to the Moldavian breakaway region. . Transnistria hosting a Russian military base. All these ambitions depend on the success of Moscow in the east. A defeat in Donbass would put Kyiv in a precarious position, with the recruits deprived of the skills of the hard-core soldiers now fighting in the east and the supply of Western weapons not enough to repel a potentially deeper Russian push. Ukrainian officials have dispelled such fears, expressing confidence that his army can withstand the onslaught of Russian progress and even launch a counterattack. “Ukraine’s plan is clear: Kyiv is depleting the Russian army, trying to gain time for more deliveries of Western weapons, including air defense systems, in the hope of launching an effective counterattack,” said Razumkov Center analyst Mykola Sunhurovsky. Thought tank based in Kyiv. Philip Breedlove, a retired U.S. Air Force general who was NATO’s top commander from 2013 to 2016, warned of any ceasefire that would encode Russia’s gains on the battlefield. “It’s like raising a 2-year-old,” he said. “If you let the bad behavior stand or worse if you reward the bad behavior, you will have more bad behavior.” When Russia invaded Georgia in 2008, Washington’s response was inadequate, and when Moscow invaded Crimea in 2014, “the response from the West and the United States to it was inadequate,” Breedlove added. Now that Russia is back for more, the West has another chance to respond. “How we end this war will decide, in my opinion, whether we will see more of it in the future,” he added.
Associated Press writers Lolita C. Baldor in Washington, DC, Yuras Karmanau in Lviv, Ukraine, Jill Lawless and Sylvia Hui in London, and Frances D’Emilio in Rome.
Getting in touch
Do you have questions about the attack in Ukraine? Email [email protected]
Include your name, location, and contact information if you would like to speak to a CTV News reporter. Your comments can be used in a CTVNews.ca story.
