The unemployment rate in the UK has risen as regular wages continue to fall short of inflation at the fastest pace in a decade. The latest data on jobs, which have just been published, show that the unemployment rate rose to 3.8% in the three months to April, as more people are looking for work. This is from 3.7% in the quarter to March (the lowest in the last 50 years) and may indicate that the job recovery in the UK is slowing down. ⚠️ First rise in the unemployment rate in the UK after the Covid crisis. It may be a blow … but the message is clear: the easy part of the UK’s economic recovery is behind us and things are starting to change. Watch the UK closely … it will be a canary in the coal mine for a global recession $ GBP pic.twitter.com/4J1lb8eFsc – Viraj Patel (@VPatelFX) June 14, 2022 The basic wage is still lagging behind rising prices as the cost-of-living crisis hits households. Regular wages rose 4.2% in the February-April quarter, well behind inflation, which reached 9% in May. However, total earnings, including bonuses, were much higher – up 6.8% thanks to increasing bonuses in the financial sector. Thus, in real terms (adjusted for inflation), total wages increased by 0.4% in the quarter, while regular wages fell by 2.2% on an annual basis. This is the biggest drop in real wages since late 2011, putting pressure on families struggling to pay their food and energy bills. Taking into account inflation, the average payout including bonuses increased by 0.4% per year from February to April 2022, thanks to strong bonuses. However, excluding bonuses, rewards were reduced by 2.2% in real terms pic.twitter.com/LJL6vVrPQF – Bureau of National Statistics (ONS) (@ONS) June 14, 2022 However, companies are still hiring staff. The number of people in corporate payrolls rose to a new record high, rising by 90,000 in May to 29.6 million. The number of job vacancies in March to May 2022 rose to a new record 1,300,000. However, the growth rate of vacancies continued to slow down. The layoffs fell in the quarter and are at record levels as companies retain staff. However, the employment rate is still lower than pre-pandemic levels due to declining self-employment in the pandemic. More details and reactions follow …
He is also coming today
The stock markets prevail in a very nervous atmosphere, after the fall of Wall Street in a bear market last night. The S&P 500 index fell nearly 4% to close more than 20% below its all-time high as US government bond prices rose amid rising expectations that the US Federal Reserve could raise interest rates sharply on Wednesday. . An increase of 75 basis points, three times the normal range, is now considered an option to control inflation. This has heightened fears that central banks could push economies into recession, which has dramatically boosted government bond yields. Asia-Pacific stock markets fell overnight, with Australia’s main index falling almost 4% and Japan’s Nikkei falling 1.5%. European stocks are set to open slightly higher after Monday’s fall, but it could be another volatile day. Bonds yesterday. Let’s hope that the exhaustion will come and they will spend their day asleep. So far, a nervous breakdown on Tuesday… 2 and 10 together at 3.34%, S&P futures rose 1%, the dollar a little softer. Ahead are the jobs in the UK and the US IST. pic.twitter.com/Tks2BdxBZ5 – kit Juckes (@kitjuckes) June 14, 2022
THE AGENDA
7 a.m. BST: Unemployment report in the UK for May 10 am. BST: Gemran ZEW Investment Confidence Index 10.30 a.m. BST: Committee on Enterprise, Energy and Industrial Strategy (BEIS) holds hearing on flight cancellations in the UK 11 a.m. BST: US Small Business Optimism Index NFIB 1.30 p.m. BST: US PPI Producer Price Index
Updated on 08.04 BST
Wages in the UK are declining at the fastest rate in more than 20 years
Regular real wages in the UK fell at the fastest pace this century in April, as wages fell further behind rising prices. In April alone, regular pay packages (excluding bonuses) shrank by 3.4% as soon as you adjusted for inflation. This is the biggest monthly drop, from year to year, in at least 20 years, show the current data from the National Statistical Service. Stephen Evans, Chief Executive of the Learning and Work Institute, said: “The cost-of-living crisis is hitting hard, with real regular wages falling more sharply this month than any other month in this century. We are experiencing a time of pain. The Chancellor has increased the assistance offered and must prepare to do more. We also need an urgent focus on getting our economy back on track so that living standards can rise. Tony Wilson, director of the Institute for Employment Studies, says this is “really bleak news” about wages and is likely to get worse. Despite the narrower labor market recorded, nominal wages are generally stable, which means that soaring inflation has led to the largest real wage cuts in at least two decades. The picture is particularly bad for public sector employees, with real wages falling by almost 6% year on year. At the same time, as employment begins to rise, one million people are still missing from the workforce compared to pre-pandemic trends – especially the elderly, those with health problems and those working abroad. The large increases in long-term ill health are particularly worrying, with a quarter of a million more people out of the workforce than before the pandemic.
European markets are opening up a little higher
European stock markets moved higher at the beginning of trading, after the sharp declines on Monday, as global stocks were hit by fears of recession. The FTSE 100 index finger has increased by 22 points, or 0.3%, to 7227 points (after losing more than 110 points on Monday) Banks and builders are leading the way, with HSBC up 2.6%, Natwest up 2.2% and Barratt Development up 2.1% higher. The German DAX rose 0.8%, while the French CAC rose 0.5%, as they also recover some losses. European stock exchanges Photo: Refinitiv Interactive investor Richard Hunter, Head of Markets, says the week started with bruises as fears of a recession began to rise, leading Wall Street to a bear market last night. As expected, the bad mood also spread to Asian markets, where the prospect of a delayed restart of the Chinese economy in the light of further lockdowns heightened concerns about global growth. More positively, the possibility of some monetary easing by the Chinese authorities and that much of the bad news is being valued has left optimists with little room for maneuver. In the United Kingdom, a positive opening for the shares did little to reduce the loss caused by the previous day’s fall. Having spent much of the year in positive territory compared to many of its peers worldwide, the FTSE100 has now fallen by 1.6% year on year to date. Today’s break could still be short, especially if there are further shocks on the scale of central bank tightening. There are still nearly 450,000 more people neither working nor looking for work than before the pandemic, despite a slight drop in economic inactivity in April. This includes 225,000 more people with long-term illness and 26,000 temporary patients. “Economic inactivity” has fallen slightly, but the number of people in the UK who do not work and are not looking for work is around 450,000 higher than pre-COVID. This is a colossal change and is not often discussed. More demand in the system + fewer people at work = more pressure on wages. pic.twitter.com/rvTzByNbzR – Joel Hills (@ITVJoel) June 14, 2022
Capital Economics: early signs of relaxation
Today’s job report could be an early sign that the slowdown in economic activity this year is affecting the job market, says Paul Dales, chief economist at Capital Economics in the UK. Employment growth of 177,000 in the quarter to April exceeded the consensus forecast of 107,000 again, but the unemployment rate rose from 3.7% to 3.8% (consensus 3.6%). In addition, one-month data showed that employment fell by 254,000 in April itself and the unemployment rate rose from 3.5% in March to 4.2%. In addition, the number of job vacancies hardly increased at all, from 1,296 million in April to 1,300 million in the quarter to May. And our one-month seasonal data adjustments suggest vacancies were reduced in May for the first time since COVID-19 became addicted in December.
Political reaction
Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak says the 15 15 billion cost-of-living package will help families cope with the cost of living. “Today’s statistics show that our labor market remains strong with redundancies at an all-time low. “Helping people at work is the best way to support families in the long run, and we continue to support people in new and better jobs. “We are also providing immediate assistance with rising prices – 8 million of the most vulnerable families will receive τουλάχιστον at least 200 1,200 in direct payments this year, with all families receiving 400 400.” However, MP Jonathan Ashworth, Labor Minister for Shadow Labor and Pensions, says the government is overly concerned about the challenge: Work must be the best defense against rising cost of living, yet millions of workers are in poverty, real wages are falling sharply, total employment figures are below pre-pandemic levels and unemployment benefits are not looking work is higher than the prevalence. “With record job vacancies and inflation at their highest level in 40 years, ministers have shown utter satisfaction with huge levels of economic inactivity. “Instead, Labor will reform employment support to help people return to work, face rising living costs and build a prosperous economy with quality and well-paid jobs.” Updated on 08.14 BST Bonuses make a huge difference in the impact of price increases. Include them, and the total wage just outpaced inflation. This is partly due to a year of prosperity in the city – British …
